New Record Highs for FHA Refinance Mortgages!

Click Chart for Large View and More Statistics

FHA refinance mortgages surpassed the records set during the refinance boom of 2003. More than 80,000 refinance mortgages were endorsed for FHA insurance in March 2009. the previous record was 71,487 set back in September 2003.

The total mortgage dollar amounts have set records most months since May 2008 with $8.85 billion dollars in FHA refinance mortgages. In March 2009, the total dollar volume of FHA refinance mortgages exceeded $15 billion dollars. FHA continues to grab more market share across the nation as lenders have become reluctant to offer conventional financing not meeting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guidelines.

The leading FHA funding mortgage originators for the first quarter of 2009 are Countrywide Bank, Wells Fargo Mortgage, Taylor Bean & Whitaker, Flagstar Bank, and MetLife Bank.

Veterans Administration Refinance Mortgages Climbing HIGH!

Click chart for a larger image and more statistics

Veterans Administration (VA) guaranteed refinance mortgages have been on a steady climb during the first quarter of 2009. The chart shows the monthly number of VA mortgages for refinance over the past 30 months. March 2009 had over 15,000 new VA refinance mortgage originators, more than triple the number of the same type of VA mortgages for March of the prior year. The increase in VA mortgages for refinance is the result of low interest rates, more stringent qualifications for conventional mortgages, and easier qualifications for eligible veterans.

The average mortgage amounts of VA refinance mortgages are exceeding $215,000 in each of the first three months of 2009. The leading VA refinance mortgage originators include Wells Fargo Mortgage, National City Mortgage (Now PNC Bank), USAA Federal Savings Bank, Mortgage Investors Corp., and Taylor Bean & Whitaker Mortgage.

First Quarter Conventional Purchase Mortgage Originations Real Slow!

We hear a lot about sales of existing homes stabilizing. The conventional mortgage data has yet to confirm that trend. The chart above shows monthly conventional mortgage originations for home purchases. New lows are seen for the first quarter of 2009.

Since a large proportion of home purchases are distress sales (foreclosed real estate owned by banks and short sales), purchasers of homes might be using their own cash or non conventional sources for home purchases.

Travis County, TX Median Home Price Increase

The chart below shows the trend in Median Home Price for Travis County, Texas over the last year. By analyzing this chart below we may be seeing another sign that the housing market is improving in certain areas. We are seeing a modest seasonal increase in 2009 vs. 2008. The median home price in February 2009 was $218,000 compared to $203,000 in February 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view of the chart.

Leading DAPs Realized Hugh Revenue in 2008

Down Payment Assistance Providers (DAPs) enabled borrowers to obtain FHA mortgages to purchase homes with no money down. In essence, the DAPs acted is if they were charities. The DAPs gifted the money for down payment and closing costs to the borrower. The funds for the gift came from the seller of the property. Typically the seller of the property inflated their selling price to accommodate the cost of the gift funds. The purchaser of the home typically paid a higher price for the home. In the transaction, the DAPs retained a fee. A typical fee was $500 for a transaction. Multiply the DAP fee times the number of transactions and you can see millions of dollars that the DAPs received through their transactions. Nehemiah and Ameridream were great at exploiting this program dominating more than 50 percent of the DAP market in 2008.

Seller assisted down payments are no longer eligible for FHA mortgage insurance. That leaves these down payment providers in the business of lobbying for changes in legislation that would permit them to once again skim hundreds of millions of dollars from homeowners once again.

Now ask which mortgage companies participated in this program and how much they benefited from seller assisted down payments the program!

FHA Originations Continue to Rise

Last month I wrote about the healthy increase in FHA originations from November to December nationally. The trend continued into January with increase in approximately 3,000 originations over the December numbers. The chart below shows the trend since January 2008.



Click on the image below for a larger view.

Check back next month to see if this trend continues to climb to levels we haven't seen since Down Payment Assistance was eliminated last Fall.

National Conventional Refis Rise in January

The number of Conventional Refinance loans originated in January rose to 284,872 from a December National Total of 187,638. Take a look at the chart below to see the monthly trend for the last year.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

We expect these numbers to continue to rise in February given the trend in interest rate reductions. Check back next month to see if we are right.

Fairfax County Home Sales Rise Slightly

The sales of homes in Fairfax County, VA rose in December 2008 compared to the same month one year ago. There were 927 homes sold in Fairfax county in December 2008 compared to 895 homes sold in December 2007. The chart below charts the monthly sales trend for all of 2007 and 2008.



Click on the image below for a larger view.

We will continue to monitor this area to see if the same trends continue for future months.

Orlando the Next Foreclosure Capital?

The Orlando metro area like many other Florida cities with already high foreclosure rates may see increases by another 14 or 15% in 2009. The combination of housing price floors that can't be found and an expected increase in job loss is further contributing to an already bad situation. The chart below shows the decline in median home prices in Orlando over the last year.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

When will this end? We will provide an update in a couple of months to see if these projections hold true.

Jumbo Mortgages Disappearing

The Great Loan Blog: Why can't I get a 5% 30Y Fixed Jumbo?

The link above from The Great Loan Blog, provides excellent insight about today's lack of jumbo conventional mortgage availability.

The chart below describes the monthly trend of the proportion of jumbo purchase mortgages relative to all conventional purchase mortgages since 2004.

Click chart for a larger image

Notice that the percentage of jumbos drops stepwise after December in years 2004 and 2005. The reason for these sudden drops for jumbos was that conforming loan limits on single family residences were increased in the following month. Conforming loan limits were increased in January 2005 from $333,700 to $359,650. Conforming loan limits were increased again in January 2006 to $417,000. This enabled $conforming mortgages to meet the demands for high priced home purchases. The irrational exuberance of home price increases in 2005 and 2006 eat away the purchasing power of conforming loans. The result created greater demand for the jumbo mortgages in 2005 and 2006. In 2007 there was no increase in the conforming loan limit, which is why you do not see the typical stepwise decrease in proportion of conventional mortgages that are jumbo. Also housing demand was slowing down by early 2007. By June - July 2007 the chart shows a mid year sudden drop in proportions of jumbo mortgages. This reflects the meltdowns in the secondary mortgage markets for these products. Investors lost interest in jumbo mortgages. That lack of a secondary market for jumbo mortgages persist to the present day.

If you are a mortgage originator, please feel free to post your product descriptions of jumbo level mortgage financing and the terms. Alternatively you can send your product availability to us by email to mortgageinfo@cbmiweb.com. Thanks!

Maricopa County Median Price Rises!

In Maricopa County, Arizona there was finally some encouraging news in early 2009. After seeing a steady decline of median home prices on a monthly basis in 2008, there was a modest increase in January 2009. The chart below shows the trend since January 2008.


Click on the image below for a larger view.

This is a bit of good news to market that really suffered last year.

Declare Disaster to Pay Your Mortgage?

The idea is no far fetched. According to an Associated Press report found on MSNBC's web site, Saint Lucie County Florida Commissioner Douglas Coward argues:

The declaration would act like a mini-stimulus plan, giving government officials access to a $17.5 million county fund usually reserved for natural disasters. The county would be able to put some of that money toward shovel-ready construction projects and loosen the bidding requirements so that local contractors got the jobs. That, in turn, could enable residents to pay their mortgages and stave off foreclosure.

It sure is ruff in Saint Lucie!

Update on Stockton, CA

Back in November, I was speculating that maybe Stockton, CA was starting to climb out of their foreclosure mess due to the increasing FHA originations. Let's take a look at what happened in the remainder of the year.

In November, I showed numbers through September where the monthly originations were continuing to rise each month. As you can see from the chart above, the numbers dipped in November following the elimination of Down Payment Assistance. However, the numbers rose again in December. So there continues to be positive signs of improvement. It will interesting to see what happens in the first quarter of 2009 for this distressed market.

DC Median Home Price Rises

A bit of good news from December 2008. The median home price in Washington, DC rose in December along with a slight increase in sales from the November numbers. The sales of home purchases rose to 3,123 in December from 2,767 in November.

The chart below shows the median home price trend for 2008.


These statistics may be showing signs of a shrinking inventory of foreclosure properties. I will be keeping an eye on these statistics in the coming months. If this trend continues over the next few months, a housing market recovery may be on the way in DC.

First Home Mortgage Increases Market Share

First Home Mortgage, Severna Park, MD increased their FHA market share in Prince George's County, Maryland from 2.38% in November to 5.94% in December. The chart below shows their market share trend in this market for 2008.

This increase in market share in December moved First Home Mortgage to #6 for FHA Market Share for the year. They are one to keep an eye on for 2009.

Obama Visits Mesa Arizona. Its Bad Out There!

Today, President Obama, unveils the Homeowner Affordability and Stabilization Plan in Mesa, AZ. Mesa and the entire Phoenix metropolitan area is experiencing rapidly deteriorating home values and high rates of home foreclosures.

The chart below shows the monthly median home price trend for Phoenix Metro over the past six years. The median home prices in Phoenix have fallen 40% from a high of $275,000 in May 2006 to roughly $179,000 in December 2008.

Click on chart for full screen view

The report below describes conventional purchase money mortgage data for Phoenix Metro for years 2005 and 2006. These two years cover the time period of irrational exuberance in real estate.

Notice that more than one-third of the purchase money mortgages had loan-to-value (LTV) ratios above 85 percent. Also note the average purchase mortgage in Phoenix Metro for those years ($237,954) is significantly higher than current median home price values ($179,000). These statistics provide hard evidence of how vast the "home owners are under water" problem is in Phoenix. Many more homeowners obtained piggy back home purchase mortgages and cash out refinance mortgages, making a bad problem worse.

Click on report for full screen view

The report above on conventional purchase money mortgages includes the mortgage lender origination volume and market share for the top 15 mortgage lenders in Phoenix Metro in 2005 and 2006. Can you identify how many dead lenders there are in the report above and the impact those mortgage lenders had on the homeowners of Phoenix?

Arlington County Sales Rise in December

After a few months of decline, home sales rose in Arlington County, VA for the month of December. The chart below tracks the monthly sales since April 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

Is this a beginning of some good news? There is some bad news that goes with this increase in sales. The median home price dropped further in December to $454,000 from a high in October of $558,000. Hopefully, if sales stay strong the median home price can climb back up as the inventory of homes on the market shrinks.

Provident Funding: The New Mortgage Top Ten Originator!

MortgageDataWeb's national ranking of conventional mortgage top ten originators now includes Provident Funding Associates of Burlingame, California. This ranking is based upon the total dollar of mortgage originations in 2008. Provident Funding currently ranks ninth in the nation. 2008 is the first year that MortgageDataWeb found Provident Funding on this distinguished list.


MortgageDataWeb uses data collected from municipal recordings to rank mortgage lenders in geographic locations. The top ten ranking of conventional mortgage originators is based upon purchase and refinance mortgages recorded and collected from over 700 counties across the U.S.



Serve the sales staff wine and host them at five star hotels in Vegas! Or do you think they desire cash?

FHA Mortgages with Seller Assisted Down Payments (DAP)

Look at how much down payment assistance providers contributed to the share of FHA purchase money mortgages! Wow!!!!!! FHA no longer insures these mortgages.

Elvis and DAP are dead!

Some Mortgage and Housing Stats For Elkhart Indiana

President Obama visits Elkhart Indiana today. During a town hall meeting he will discuss the federal economic stimulus plan and how it helps to stop and hopefully reverse the downward economic trends that we feel all over the nation.

These mortgage and housing statistics show how much Elkhart, IN has been adversely impacted by the current economic environment.

The economic stimulas will help mortgage bankers also!

Las Vegas Needs Wells Fargo!

It might seem reasonable to complain about Wells Fargo having a business meeting in Las Vegas. There are unintended consequences when making adverse judgements of every expense made by any entity receiving taxpayer rescue funds. The hospitality staff in Las Vegas and other resorts need the business. They have mortgage payments to make on their homes!

Then look at the merits of the accomplishment of Wells Fargo's mortgage business.

• Wells Fargo was first in the nation in conventional mortgage originations in 2008
• Wells Fargo was first in the nation for FHA mortgage originations in 2008
• Wells Fargo was first in the nation for VA mortgage originations in 2008

I'd reward my sales staff for keeping the top position in the nation on these mortgage products for two consecutive years.

Lets be happy that Wells Fargo elected to have their meeting in Las Vegas as opposed to Tahiti!

Home Sales Rise in December

Sales of Single Family Homes rose in Fairfax County, VA for the month of December. This is the first monthly increase for this county in the last six months. The chart below shows the monthly trend.

Click on the image for a larger view.

This trend follows some other good news that has been reported nationally that the bottom may be forming at least for home sales. We will keep an eye on this trend in Fairfax and nationally over the next couple of months.

Mortgage Refinance Applications Jump & Mortgage Refinance Originations Slump

Given reports of record low mortgage rates, we would expect a return to the mortgage refinance boom. News reports indicate a large increase in refinance applications. The data does not show that the increase in mortgage refinance applications result in increases for mortgage originations. Conventional refinance mortgages continue to show a steady decline.

FHA Originations Increase in December

FHA Originations increased by over 9,000 in December (to over 130,000 for month) from November (around 121,000). It shall be interesting to see if this is a trend that continues for future months. The month of November was the first month of statisitics after the elimination of Down Payment Assistance. This should be interesting to watch over the next couple of months. The chart below shows the monthly trend in originations.

Click on the image for a larger view.

Your Local Bank Provides Better Mortgage Deals.

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The proportion of high cost mortgages by banks in their local metropolitan area markets was compared to the proportion of high cost mortgages originated by banks in their non-local metropolitan areas. Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data was used in the study. Originated mortgages having a reportable rate spread was classified as a high interest rate (or high cost) mortgage. A bank’s mortgage was local when the mortgage secured a property located in a metropolitan area where the bank had at least one retail branch office. A bank’s mortgage was non-local when the mortgage secured a property in a metropolitan area where the bank had no retail branch office. The finding (see chart) was that from 2004 through 2007 banks were more than two times more likely to originate high cost mortgages in metropolitan areas were they do not have branch offices.

Carpetbaggers!

Monarch Home Funding Gains in November

Back in August, I reported on the growth of Monarch Home Funding's market share in Virginia Beach. They experienced a bit of a dip in market share for Veteran's Administration mortgages in October dropping to 2.47% of the market. They have bounced back in November rising back to 5.27% of the market. The chart below shows this increase in market share.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

This is quite an accomplishment given that the Veteran's Administration mortgage market slowed for Virginia Beach in November. The total of Veteran's Administration mortgage originations dropped to 517 from 702 in October. The chart below illustrates the dip in November originations.

Where Have the Jumbo Mortgages Gone? - Part 2

Last week we reported on the decline of conventional mortgage origination and especially jumbo mortgages. Our study focuses on what is happening in mortgage markets. We have some additional news explaining additional causes of the decline of the conventional jumbo mortgage market. Blame Jumbo size FHA mortgages!

Early this year, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-185) included an increase of FHA Mortgage loan amount limits. One result of this law was that many mortgages that may have been financed only through conventional mortgages (typically known as jumbo mortgages) became eligible for FHA mortgage insurance. The chart shows the monthly increases in the number of jumbo size (mortgages $417,000 or more) since 2006. The jumbo size FHA mortgages prior to the law (before February 2008) include mortgages on two, three, or four family residential units which allowed for higher mortgage loan limits cases.

An FHA mortgage for everybody!

Note!: Blogger image upload was not working for us today so we placed the chart on our web server.

FHA Average Mortgage Amount Plateaus

After several months of increasing average loan amounts for FHA, the national average loan amount has stopped growing the last few months.

Click on the image for a larger view.

This is an interesting trend considering the FHA loan limit was raised to over $729,000 in some high cost counties. Take a look at what is going on in Fairfax County, Virginia (FHA loan limit of $729,750). After an initial increase this year, the average amounts have been declining the last few months. Is this a function of further declining home values or something else?

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Where oh Where Has Our Jumbo Mortgage Business Gone?

In recent months the percentage of conventional home purchase jumbo mortgages have been increasing.
click on chart for larger image

But!

In recent months the number of all conventional mortgages including jumbo mortgages have fallen off a cliff!

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Navy Federal Originations Double in Fairfax County

Navy Federal Credit Union more than doubled their Conventional Mortgage Originations for Fairfax County, Virginia in October from the September numbers. The chart below shows the monthly origination numbers for 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

This increase increase in originations led to a significant increase in their Fairfax County market share, as the chart below shows.

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This is an important development for Navy Federal Credit Union , the world's largest credit union. Navy Federal Credit Union has announced an even larger commitment in mortgage lending for 2009. Click here to view the Navy Federal Credit Union press release. We will be following this in the coming months to see if their monthly originations and market share continue to rise.