Fairfax County Refi Volume Slows

The refinance volume for Fairfax County, VA has slowed this summer even though rates remain low. Take a look at the chart below:

After reaching highs between October through March, things have slowed in the summer months. It will be interesting to see if this continues through the Fall.

Update on Arlington County, VA Home Prices

Last year, I wrote about the increasing home prices and resulting increase in sales in Arlington County, VA. Below is an updated chart that shows from June 2010 through August 2011:

This chart shows a slight increase in median home price in August 2011 from June 2010 but no real increase in home sales (we see the usual seasonal peaks and valleys) over that period. There is no bad news as there is in many other areas of the country. I will follow up on this area again with a blog article sometime next year to see if things are changing for the better.

Fairfax County Median Home Price Update

Last December, I reported how both the Median Home Price and Sales were trending downward in Fairfax County, VA. Below is a chart that shows what has been taking place since that time. This chart shows the median home price and sales for the period of September 2010 through August 2011:

It appears the news over the last twelve months is a little better. The median home price is about $30,ooo higher than a year and sales seem to be trending upward. I will keep an eye on this positive trend to see if it continues. Check our blog in the future to see if there is more good news for Fairfax County.

Home Values Are Rising!

The news is improving in some places. Below is a chart tracking the Median Home Price in Arlington County, VA for the last 18 months or so. When comparing May 2009 (where Median Home Price was $456 K) and May 2010 (where Median Home Price was $520 K) we have seen a nice increase.

Click on the image below for a larger view of the chart.

We hope this positive sign shows in other places around the country in the remainer of the summer.

Are Mortgage Markets Concentrated or Competitive? Look at Virginia

This weeks' National Mortgage News (September 7, 2009) top residential originator summaries suggest that Wells Fargo and Bank of America accounted for 44% of all residential funding. If this is true then where is the Justice Department on antitrust law enforcement? These types of market shares potentially give these lenders pricing and service powers to squeeze out the competitors. Well not so fast!


We used mortgage data for Virginia (later this can be extended too many more markets) and compared the competitive landscape today to the Virginia mortgage market in 2006. Virginia is a typical mortgage market for this experiment. 2006 was a good year to compare because the major turmoil in mortgage markets showed their ugly face in 2007. We calculated the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) as a statistic to measure mortgage market concentration. Conventional purchase and refinance mortgage recordings for the first six months of 2006 was compared to 2009.

In 2006 the HHI value was 235 indicated a very competitive mortgage market having dozens of mortgage lender participants. In 2009, HHI climbed to 552. This is hardly a concentrated mortgage market and values of 552 would not be possible with 2 lenders having 44 percent of the market. No way Jose!

Even with mega mergers of Countrywide / Bank of America and Wachovia/ Wells Fargo, we still have competitive mortgage markets. It is true that the markets are much less competitive than they were just a few years ago but they are still competitive.

Fairfax Virginia New Home Owners Carry Less Mortgage Debt

In Fairfax County, VA., the average mortgage amount for $conforming (non jumbo) mortgages declined to $272,000 during the first quarter of 2009. This is more than a 16% decrease from the average mortgage loan amount of $conforming mortgages in Fairfax County Virginia during the first quarter of 2008 when the average loan was $317,000.

Click on Chart for Larger View and More Statistics

The chart above shows the monthly average mortgage amount for conventional purchase money mortgages on properties in Fairfax County Virginia. Only conventional mortgages having mortgage amount below the conforming limit are included ($417,000 for mortgages with closing dates in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 and $360,000 for mortgages having closing dates in 2005).

Home purchasers are able to obtain lower first lien mortgages to purchase homes in Fairfax as a result of decreases in home prices.

The savings to Fairfax home owners has its costs to mortgage lenders. Not only are mortgage lenders originating fewer mortgages, the reduced loan amounts result in reduced loan origination fees. Mortgage lenders typically charge 1 percent of the mortgage amount for their compensation in originating the mortgage.

Navy Federal Originations Double in Fairfax County

Navy Federal Credit Union more than doubled their Conventional Mortgage Originations for Fairfax County, Virginia in October from the September numbers. The chart below shows the monthly origination numbers for 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

This increase increase in originations led to a significant increase in their Fairfax County market share, as the chart below shows.

Click on the image for a larger view.

This is an important development for Navy Federal Credit Union , the world's largest credit union. Navy Federal Credit Union has announced an even larger commitment in mortgage lending for 2009. Click here to view the Navy Federal Credit Union press release. We will be following this in the coming months to see if their monthly originations and market share continue to rise.

Prosperity Mortgage Originations Rise in October

Prosperity Mortgage of Fairfax, VA saw a healthly increase in their FHA Purchase Originations in Virginia for the month of October. Prosperity Mortgage also continues to maintain their healthy market share lead for FHA Correspondent Lenders in Virginia. Click on this link to see the Top 5. See the chart below for Prosperity's trend of FHA originations for January through October 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

FHA Jumbos Finance Homes in Fairfax Station, Virginia

Fairfax Station, in Fairfax County Virginia has single family homes with median sale prices approaching $800,000. It is rare to see FHA mortgages used to finance homes in this community. Prior mortgage loan amount limits for FHA mortgages made them useless in Fairfax Station. Things are different now! FHA mortgage loan amount limits are $729,750 for the remainder of this year for homes in Fairfax Station. The chart shows the mortgage lenders originating FHA mortgages on homes in Fairfax Station. Now FHA mortgages are financing home purchases or refinancing existing mortgages in markets where conventional jumbos were the only way to go.

Rapidly Growing Chicago FHA Market Continues in August

The rapid growth of the FHA market (and the rapid decrease of the Conforming market) continued in August. Below are two charts that show the rapid increase in FHA Purchase originations and rapid decrease in $Conforming Purchase originations in Chicago through August 2008.

Click on the image for a larger view.

Click on the image for a larger view.

Will there be a Conforming market left in September?

Re-aligned Mortgage Market of Woodbridge Virginia

Woodbridge, a bedroom community of Prince William County Virginia is home to roughly 12,000 households. Subdivisions such as Lake Ridge, Dale City, Rippon Landings have many homes financed with FHA mortgages during the 1970s through the 1990s. After 2003 homeowners overlooked FHA for financing home purchases.

Click on chart to view larger image:

As of this year, the trend has revered. FHA mortgages are approaching the same numbers as conventional mortgages to finance home purchases in Woodbridge, VA. If the realignment rate of mortgage products continue, we can expect to see FHA mortgages used more than conventional mortgages in Woodbridge within several months.

Weststar Mortgage, who coincidentally is headquartered in Woodbridge, succeeded in grabbing a large market share of the FHA mortgages in Woodbridge. Westar Mortgage happened to be ranked first in all of Prince William County for FHA purchase mortgages in the first half 2007. During that period, Weststar only originated 6 FHA purchase mortgages and all lenders originated 61. Now those numbers are surpassed in a single month just within Woodbridge. This reveals another big positive change in an otherwise dismal mortgage and housing market.

Monarch Home Funding Grows with Conventional Mortgages. Increases Market Share in Virginia Beach.

Yesterday I reported that Monarch Home Funding increased their Veterans Administration mortgage market share in Virginia Beach. Monarch Home Funding also makes great strides with conventional purchase mortgages for Virginia Beach, Virginia. The chart shows the rapid market share growth that Monarch Home Funding has achieved with conventional purchase mortgages in the Virginia Beach metropolitan area market.


Click on the chart for a larger image

Prince William County Virginia - Home Prices in Free Fall!

I found this dialogue amusing and as useful as any analysis of Case-Shiller home price data. The idle chat provides a description of home price declines in one market in Virginia. Some posters contend that the crack down on illegal immigrants exacerbate foreclosures and housing prices. If that is the case then perhaps we might all benefit by being a little nicer to our immigrant neighbors!

Just for fun!! These quotes were copied from the link.

• .....Seems like there was some really irresponsible lending going on
  there.

  Let's just say if the price charts were a ski slope--it would truly be "experts only."

  Let's say if Dumfries and Manassas combined, and they changed to Dumassas

Real Estate Turning Up in Fairfax County?

A recent Washington Post article suggests increased home sales for May 2008 over the prior year. Lets hope so. I'll display the 2008 second quarter mortgage purchase data when I have it. The first quarter of 2008 was abysmal as shown by the trend report.

Thank You Fairfax Board Chairman Connolly !!!

These days leadership seems so scarce. While millions loose homes to foreclosure and neighborhoods are blighted by the rise of abandoned and trashed home, our inept President and our "do nothing" congress offers nothing to bring relief to the escalating problem. Fairfax County (Virginia) Board Chairman Gerald Connolly demonstrated bold leadership by arranging for Fairfax County to purchase these properties and offer low interest loans to new owner occupants. This effort provides a reasonable approach to reduce abandon properties, maintain quality neighborhoods, and provide some affordable housing Fairfax County. Finally someone is doing something.