National Conventional Refis Rise in January

The number of Conventional Refinance loans originated in January rose to 284,872 from a December National Total of 187,638. Take a look at the chart below to see the monthly trend for the last year.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

We expect these numbers to continue to rise in February given the trend in interest rate reductions. Check back next month to see if we are right.

Fairfax County Home Sales Rise Slightly

The sales of homes in Fairfax County, VA rose in December 2008 compared to the same month one year ago. There were 927 homes sold in Fairfax county in December 2008 compared to 895 homes sold in December 2007. The chart below charts the monthly sales trend for all of 2007 and 2008.



Click on the image below for a larger view.

We will continue to monitor this area to see if the same trends continue for future months.

Orlando the Next Foreclosure Capital?

The Orlando metro area like many other Florida cities with already high foreclosure rates may see increases by another 14 or 15% in 2009. The combination of housing price floors that can't be found and an expected increase in job loss is further contributing to an already bad situation. The chart below shows the decline in median home prices in Orlando over the last year.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

When will this end? We will provide an update in a couple of months to see if these projections hold true.

Jumbo Mortgages Disappearing

The Great Loan Blog: Why can't I get a 5% 30Y Fixed Jumbo?

The link above from The Great Loan Blog, provides excellent insight about today's lack of jumbo conventional mortgage availability.

The chart below describes the monthly trend of the proportion of jumbo purchase mortgages relative to all conventional purchase mortgages since 2004.

Click chart for a larger image

Notice that the percentage of jumbos drops stepwise after December in years 2004 and 2005. The reason for these sudden drops for jumbos was that conforming loan limits on single family residences were increased in the following month. Conforming loan limits were increased in January 2005 from $333,700 to $359,650. Conforming loan limits were increased again in January 2006 to $417,000. This enabled $conforming mortgages to meet the demands for high priced home purchases. The irrational exuberance of home price increases in 2005 and 2006 eat away the purchasing power of conforming loans. The result created greater demand for the jumbo mortgages in 2005 and 2006. In 2007 there was no increase in the conforming loan limit, which is why you do not see the typical stepwise decrease in proportion of conventional mortgages that are jumbo. Also housing demand was slowing down by early 2007. By June - July 2007 the chart shows a mid year sudden drop in proportions of jumbo mortgages. This reflects the meltdowns in the secondary mortgage markets for these products. Investors lost interest in jumbo mortgages. That lack of a secondary market for jumbo mortgages persist to the present day.

If you are a mortgage originator, please feel free to post your product descriptions of jumbo level mortgage financing and the terms. Alternatively you can send your product availability to us by email to mortgageinfo@cbmiweb.com. Thanks!

Maricopa County Median Price Rises!

In Maricopa County, Arizona there was finally some encouraging news in early 2009. After seeing a steady decline of median home prices on a monthly basis in 2008, there was a modest increase in January 2009. The chart below shows the trend since January 2008.


Click on the image below for a larger view.

This is a bit of good news to market that really suffered last year.

Declare Disaster to Pay Your Mortgage?

The idea is no far fetched. According to an Associated Press report found on MSNBC's web site, Saint Lucie County Florida Commissioner Douglas Coward argues:

The declaration would act like a mini-stimulus plan, giving government officials access to a $17.5 million county fund usually reserved for natural disasters. The county would be able to put some of that money toward shovel-ready construction projects and loosen the bidding requirements so that local contractors got the jobs. That, in turn, could enable residents to pay their mortgages and stave off foreclosure.

It sure is ruff in Saint Lucie!