Update on Stockton, CA

Back in November, I was speculating that maybe Stockton, CA was starting to climb out of their foreclosure mess due to the increasing FHA originations. Let's take a look at what happened in the remainder of the year.

In November, I showed numbers through September where the monthly originations were continuing to rise each month. As you can see from the chart above, the numbers dipped in November following the elimination of Down Payment Assistance. However, the numbers rose again in December. So there continues to be positive signs of improvement. It will interesting to see what happens in the first quarter of 2009 for this distressed market.

DC Median Home Price Rises

A bit of good news from December 2008. The median home price in Washington, DC rose in December along with a slight increase in sales from the November numbers. The sales of home purchases rose to 3,123 in December from 2,767 in November.

The chart below shows the median home price trend for 2008.


These statistics may be showing signs of a shrinking inventory of foreclosure properties. I will be keeping an eye on these statistics in the coming months. If this trend continues over the next few months, a housing market recovery may be on the way in DC.

First Home Mortgage Increases Market Share

First Home Mortgage, Severna Park, MD increased their FHA market share in Prince George's County, Maryland from 2.38% in November to 5.94% in December. The chart below shows their market share trend in this market for 2008.

This increase in market share in December moved First Home Mortgage to #6 for FHA Market Share for the year. They are one to keep an eye on for 2009.

Obama Visits Mesa Arizona. Its Bad Out There!

Today, President Obama, unveils the Homeowner Affordability and Stabilization Plan in Mesa, AZ. Mesa and the entire Phoenix metropolitan area is experiencing rapidly deteriorating home values and high rates of home foreclosures.

The chart below shows the monthly median home price trend for Phoenix Metro over the past six years. The median home prices in Phoenix have fallen 40% from a high of $275,000 in May 2006 to roughly $179,000 in December 2008.

Click on chart for full screen view

The report below describes conventional purchase money mortgage data for Phoenix Metro for years 2005 and 2006. These two years cover the time period of irrational exuberance in real estate.

Notice that more than one-third of the purchase money mortgages had loan-to-value (LTV) ratios above 85 percent. Also note the average purchase mortgage in Phoenix Metro for those years ($237,954) is significantly higher than current median home price values ($179,000). These statistics provide hard evidence of how vast the "home owners are under water" problem is in Phoenix. Many more homeowners obtained piggy back home purchase mortgages and cash out refinance mortgages, making a bad problem worse.

Click on report for full screen view

The report above on conventional purchase money mortgages includes the mortgage lender origination volume and market share for the top 15 mortgage lenders in Phoenix Metro in 2005 and 2006. Can you identify how many dead lenders there are in the report above and the impact those mortgage lenders had on the homeowners of Phoenix?

Arlington County Sales Rise in December

After a few months of decline, home sales rose in Arlington County, VA for the month of December. The chart below tracks the monthly sales since April 2008.

Click on the image below for a larger view.

Is this a beginning of some good news? There is some bad news that goes with this increase in sales. The median home price dropped further in December to $454,000 from a high in October of $558,000. Hopefully, if sales stay strong the median home price can climb back up as the inventory of homes on the market shrinks.

Provident Funding: The New Mortgage Top Ten Originator!

MortgageDataWeb's national ranking of conventional mortgage top ten originators now includes Provident Funding Associates of Burlingame, California. This ranking is based upon the total dollar of mortgage originations in 2008. Provident Funding currently ranks ninth in the nation. 2008 is the first year that MortgageDataWeb found Provident Funding on this distinguished list.


MortgageDataWeb uses data collected from municipal recordings to rank mortgage lenders in geographic locations. The top ten ranking of conventional mortgage originators is based upon purchase and refinance mortgages recorded and collected from over 700 counties across the U.S.



Serve the sales staff wine and host them at five star hotels in Vegas! Or do you think they desire cash?

FHA Mortgages with Seller Assisted Down Payments (DAP)

Look at how much down payment assistance providers contributed to the share of FHA purchase money mortgages! Wow!!!!!! FHA no longer insures these mortgages.

Elvis and DAP are dead!

Some Mortgage and Housing Stats For Elkhart Indiana

President Obama visits Elkhart Indiana today. During a town hall meeting he will discuss the federal economic stimulus plan and how it helps to stop and hopefully reverse the downward economic trends that we feel all over the nation.

These mortgage and housing statistics show how much Elkhart, IN has been adversely impacted by the current economic environment.

The economic stimulas will help mortgage bankers also!

Las Vegas Needs Wells Fargo!

It might seem reasonable to complain about Wells Fargo having a business meeting in Las Vegas. There are unintended consequences when making adverse judgements of every expense made by any entity receiving taxpayer rescue funds. The hospitality staff in Las Vegas and other resorts need the business. They have mortgage payments to make on their homes!

Then look at the merits of the accomplishment of Wells Fargo's mortgage business.

• Wells Fargo was first in the nation in conventional mortgage originations in 2008
• Wells Fargo was first in the nation for FHA mortgage originations in 2008
• Wells Fargo was first in the nation for VA mortgage originations in 2008

I'd reward my sales staff for keeping the top position in the nation on these mortgage products for two consecutive years.

Lets be happy that Wells Fargo elected to have their meeting in Las Vegas as opposed to Tahiti!

Home Sales Rise in December

Sales of Single Family Homes rose in Fairfax County, VA for the month of December. This is the first monthly increase for this county in the last six months. The chart below shows the monthly trend.

Click on the image for a larger view.

This trend follows some other good news that has been reported nationally that the bottom may be forming at least for home sales. We will keep an eye on this trend in Fairfax and nationally over the next couple of months.